Kevin Stilley

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Stilley Christmas Retail Index

Economists, the Federal Reserve and governmental entities use specific economic indicators to determine the health of the economy and forecast business and trade cycles. Such indices as earnings reports, the unemployment rate, housing starts, the Consumer Price Index, industrial production, bankruptcies, Gross Domestic Product, retail sales, and stock market prices.

Well I have my own set of five indicators that I use to predict how good sales are going to be for retailers during the Christmas season. (1) How many of my neighbors have up outdoor Christmas decorations and how early did they put them up? (2) How many items are people buying from Amazon after clicking through from my website? (3) How bad is the traffic congestion near the malls? (4) How difficult is it to find a parking place — how far do I have to park away from the star? (5) How long are the lines at the local discount stores?

So, what does the Stilley Christmas Index predict for retailers in 2010? It is going to be bad; really bad. We are only two weeks away from Christmas and very few of my neighbors have outdoor Christmas decorations deployed, fewer people are buying from my Amazon links than any year in the four years I have been blogging, there is little difference in the traffic levels near the malls than there is at any other time of year, I have no trouble getting a parking place close to stores, and cashiers were standing around with no one to ring up during my visits to Target and Wal-Mart this week.

I predict that this is going to be a really, really bad year for retailers.

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Christmas Anticipation

I’m worse than my kids about wanting to watch commercials.  If only television shows were half as creative as the commercials.

And, now it is the Christmas season which means polar bears drinking cola, Santa Claus sledding on an electric razor, and a spouse putting a giant red ribbon on a beautiful new car given as a Christmas gift.  Given that commercials are an accurate expression of reality I am very much looking forward to this Christmas.  I already have cola in the fridge, and I already have an electric razor, so that means …  I must be getting a brand new car from my spouse.  A shiny brand new Acura is going to look great in my driveway (I don’t think it will fit in my Christmas stocking).

All of the Acura models (RL, TL, TSX, MDX, RDX) come with groundbreaking technologies like Super Handling All-Wheel Drive™ (SH-AWD®), Variable Valve Timing and Lift Electronic Control (VTEC®), and Advanced Compatibility Engineering™ (ACE™) structural design. Sounds like the engineers may have been getting some help from the elves in Santa’s workshop. I’d better check under the hood to make sure that there isn’t a team of reindeer tucked inside.

I don’t know what I would do with reindeer, but they would surely be easier to deal with than a cola drinking polar bear.

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Christmas Shopping

I went to Wal-Mart yesterday to grab some Cockatiel food and some soda. As I walked through the front doors I was bombarded by Christmas decorations, Christmas packaging, Christmas mechandising and Christmas marketing. Almost immediately I felt an impulse to buy, buy, buy. It’s beginning to look alot like Christmas means that many people are going to be having those kinds of impulses.

Before doing your Christmas shopping, or succumbing to those impulses, consider the results of a new study conducted by Harris Interactive. According to this study, three out of four adults would prefer to receive a meaningful gift this holiday season that would help someone else instead of a traditional gift like clothing or electronics.

74% of study participants also indicated that they would increase their charitable giving once the economy improves. Given that three out of four adults would rather see gifts go to charity than to themselves, maybe the three out of four adults who want to give more to charity should do so now rather than waiting for the economy to improve. Check out the following video that offers an opportunity to do just that.

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A Cheesy Christmas

Here it is only the first week of December and already I have watched at least a dozen cheesy Christmas specials with my family.  Before Christmas day arrives I am sure we will watch several dozen more.  And, I will enjoy them all.

I watched one with the kids a few days ago that gives new meaning to the idea of a “cheesy Christmas special.”  In it, Drake and Josh were doing all they could to make sure that some young children had a great Christmas celebration.  The put 4,000 pounds of ice into a wood-chipper to try to make snow and give the children a “white Christmas” even though they lived in Southern California.  Instead, the chipper shot the ice out like a Gatling gun, destroying everything in its path.  Eventually another character discovered that it was possible to give them a white Christmas by putting cheese into the wood-chipper.  Cheese came floating down in nice white fluffy flakes.

I’m not opposed to a cheesy Christmas if the cheese comes not from a wood-chipper but in a gift basket. Rosenberg Havarti cheese with Dill from Denmark, Tour De Marze Brie cheese from France, Red Mild Gouda cheese from Holland, Mccadam Muenstr cheese from USA and Gjetost Ski Queen Mini / Norway — it all sounds good to me.

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And, one of the great things about Christmas is the panorama of color. And what is more colorful than the selection in this English cheese basket at left? But the problem is that when you drop it into the wood-chipper it will result in a green-white-yellow Christmas.  And, who really wants what appears to be yellow snow?

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A Stilley Family Christmas 2008

A few pictures from Stilley family Christmas 2008.  Click on the thumbnails for a larger view . . .

Picking out the Christmas tree

Picking out the Christmas tree

Stilleys from the Christmas hood

Stilleys from the Christmas hood

Reindeer fly. What about babies?

Reindeer fly. What about babies?

Smiles that outshine the tree lights

Smiles that outshine the tree lights

Christmas Hugs

Christmas Hugs

Spiderman's other job

Spiderman

Santa baby

Santa baby

Ready to go under the tree

Ready to go under the tree

What's not to smile about?

What

A Christmas group hug

A Christmas group hug

The first gift of Christmas

The first gift of Christmas

To record future Christmasai

To record future Christmasai

Wii say Merry Christmas

Wii say Merry Christmas

Indiana Jones battles Prince Caspian and the Power Rangers

Indiana Jones battles Prince Caspian and the Power Rangers

Hugs - The best Christmas present

Hugs - The best Christmas present

No Christmas disappointment

No Christmas disappointment

NICU = Neonativity Intensive Christmas Unit

NICU = Neonativity Intensive Christmas Unit

Measuring Christmas by the mess

Measuring Christmas by the mess

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How To Survive The Holidays

I like the following list of helps for surviving the Holiday. It was put together by Jerry Lankford at Biblical Wellness Ministries.

• Remember what all the fuss is about. This is the time to give thanks for all that God has done and to celebrate the birth of our Savior. Let’s keep that in focus. It’s not about cooking the perfect dinner, throwing the perfect party or buying the perfect gift.

• Don’t overdo it. Plan your activities and then stick to the plan. Don’t allow yourself to get caught up in all the hustle and bustle unless you enjoy it and it charges your batteries.

• Plan time to rest and reflect. Take some time with a journal to write about your feelings and thoughts. Read a good book. Be alone with God.

• Remember and honor those that you miss. One of the toughest things about these special times is being reminded of who isn’t with us. Loss is always painful, but it can be worse when we try to ignore it and don’t acknowledge it. Instead, take some time to remember those who will be missing. Spend some time looking through the picture album and reminiscing about them. Then remember that they are with you in spirit and that they would want you to be happy and blessed.

• Build your own traditions. The things we learn from our families are wonderful, but remember to build your own traditions. Make them your own and enjoy them. Don’t feel like you have to do it a particular way because grandma did it that way. Remember the story about the lady that always cut the end off her pot roast because her mother did it that way? It turns out that her mother’s pan was too small and she had to cut off the end.

• The greatest gift is time spent with our loved ones. Make sure you get plenty of time with family and worry less about all the extra stuff. After all, it’s just stuff. Love is the real thing.

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Ben Stein Regarding Christmas


The following was written by Ben Stein and recited by him on CBS Sunday Morning Commentary.

My confession:

I am a Jew, and every single one of my ancestors was Jewish. And it does not bother me even a little bit when people call those beautiful lit up, bejeweled trees Christmas trees. I don’t feel threatened. I don’t feel discriminated against. That’s what they are: Christmas trees.

It doesn’t bother me a bit when people say, “Merry Christmas” to me. I don’t think they are slighting me or getting ready to put me in a ghetto. In fact, I kind of like it. It shows that we are all brothers and sisters celebrating this happy time of year. It doesn’t bother me at all that there is a manger scene on display at a key intersection near my beach house in Malibu. If people want a crèche, it’s just as fine with me as is the Menorah a few hundred yards away.

I don’t like getting pushed around for being a Jew, and I don’t think Christians like getting pushed around for being Christians. I think people who believe in God are sick and tired of getting pushed around, period. I have no idea where the concept came from that America is an explicitly atheist country. I can’t find it in the Constitution and I don’t like it being shoved down my throat.

Or maybe I can put it another way: where did the idea come from that we should worship Nick and Jessica and we aren’t allowed to worship God as we understand Him? I guess that’s a sign that I’m getting old, too. But there are a lot of us who are wondering where Nick and Jessica came from and where the America we knew went to.

In light of the many jokes we send to one another for a laugh, this is a little different: This is not intended to be a joke; it’s not funny, it’s intended to get you thinking.

Billy Graham’s daughter was interviewed on the Early Show and Jane Clayson asked her “How could God let something like this happen?” (regarding Katrina) Anne Graham gave an extremely profound and insightful response.
She said, “I believe God is deeply saddened by this, just as we are, but for years we’ve been telling God to get out of our schools, to get out of our government and to get out of our lives. And being the gentleman He is, I believe He has calmly backed out. How can we expect God to give us His blessing and His protection if we demand He leave us alone?”

In light of recent events…terrorists attack, school shootings, etc. I think it started when Madeleine Murray O’Hare complained she didn’t want prayer in our schools, and we said OK.
Then someone said you better not read the Bible in school. The Bible says thou shalt not kill, thou shalt not steal, and love your neighbor as yourself. And we said OK.

Then Dr. Benjamin Spock said we shouldn’t spank our children when they misbehave because their little personalities would be warped and we might damage their self-esteem (Dr. Spock’s son committed suicide). We said an expert should know what he’s talking about. And we said OK.

Now we’re asking ourselves why our children have no conscience, why they don’t know right from wrong, and why it doesn’t bother them to kill strangers, their classmates, and themselves.

Probably, if we think about it long and hard enough, we can figure it out. I think it has a great deal to do with “WE REAP WHAT WE SOW.”

Funny how simple it is for people to trash Christianity, then, wonder why the world’s going to hell. Funny how we believe what the newspapers say, but question what the Bible says. Funny how you can send ‘jokes’ through e-mail and they spread like wildfire but when you start sending messages regarding the Lord, people think twice about sharing. Funny how lewd, crude, vulgar and obscene articles pass freely through cyberspace, but public discussion of God is suppressed in the school and workplace.

Are you laughing?

Funny how when you forward this message, you will not send it to many on your address list because you’re not sure what they believe, or what they will think of you for sending it.

Funny how we can be more worried about what other people think of us than what God thinks of us.

Pass it on if you think it has merit. If not then just discard it… no one will know you did. But, if you discard this thought process, don’t sit back and complain about what bad shape the world is in. My Best Regards
Honestly and respectfully,

Ben Stein

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